Commentary

Financial review

The summarised consolidated financial results for the year ended 31 December 2022 are presented below.

Rounding of figures may result in minor computational discrepancies of the tabulations.

Merafe's revenue and operating income is primarily generated from the Venture which is one of the global market leaders in ferrochrome production, with a total installed capacity of 2.3 million tonnes of ferrochrome per annum. Merafe shares in 20.5% of the earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation ("EBITDA")1 from the Venture. Merafe has one reportable segment being the mining and beneficiation of chrome ore into ferrochrome and associated minerals, as a result, no segment report has been presented.

Merafe's share of revenue from the Venture, which includes a management fee, decreased by 2% from the prior year to R7 939 million (2021: R8 063 million). Ferrochrome revenue decreased by 3% year-on-year to R6 795 million (2021: R7 020 million) primarily as a result of an 11% decrease in ferrochrome sales volumes to 350kt (2021: 394kt). This impact was cushioned by a 3% increase in average net cost, insurance and freight ("CIF") prices at 111 USc/lb (2021: 108 USc/lb) as well as a weaker average ZAR:US$ exchange of R16.37 (2021: R14.78) representing a 10% change. Chrome ore revenue increased by 0.4% year-on-year to R1 040 million (2021: R1 036 million), driven by similar factors as for ferrochrome. Chrome ore sales volumes decreased by 32% to 265kt (2021: 390kt) with this impact offset by a 36% average increase in sales prices for the year. Platinum Group Metals ("PGMs") revenue increased to R100 million (2021: R2.6 million). Although the average basket price of PGMs decreased by 9% to 2 007 US$/oz (2021: 2 216 US$/oz), higher volumes sold of 3 055oz (2021: 75oz) as well as a weaker average ZAR:US$ exchange rate more than made up for the revenue impact.

Merafe's portion of the Venture's EBITDA for the year ended 31 December 2022 is R2 228 million (2021: R2 498 million). The EBITDA includes Merafe's attributable share of standing charges of R108 million (2021: R109 million) and a net foreign exchange gain of R68 million (2021: R104 million). The R1 million (2021: R24 million) write down of inventory during the year was negligible. The ongoing diesel rebate matter with SARS has been fully provided for.

After accounting for corporate costs of R65 million (2021: R66 million), which include a cash settled share-based payment expense of R13 million (2021: R9 million), Merafe achieved EBITDA of R2 141 million (2021: R2 432 million). Corporate costs include Corporate Social Investment expenses of R3 million (2021: R3 million) and a bonus provision of R12 million (2021: R11 million).

Profit for the year ended 31 December 2022 amounted to R1 410 million (2021: R1 674 million), after taking into account a depreciation charge of R219 million (2021: R111 million), an impairment of a specific asset of R0.2 million (2021: R6 million), net financing income of R25 million (2021: R11 million) and taxation expense of R539 million (2021: R653 million). An impairment assessment was performed at year end, resulting in no further cash generating unit impairment ("CGU") adjustment for the year. Taxation includes a deferred tax expense of R36 million (2021: R199 million) which arose primarily as a result of temporary differences on property, plant and equipment as well as those relating to receivables, provisions and accruals. There is no unredeemed capital expenditure balance at 31 December 2022 (2021: Rnil) as taxable profits exceeded capital expenditure. Depreciation increased year-on-year primarily as a result of capital expenditure.

Sustaining capital expenditure increased by 4% to R466 million (2021: R448 million) due to catch-up spend necessitated by COVID-19 related spending restrictions in the prior two years. Expansionary capital includes R15 million (2021: R32 million) spent on the Kroondal PGMs processing plant, the development of which is now complete.

The R300 million unsecured, credit facility with ABSA was unutilised for the year.

At 31 December 2022, Merafe had cash and cash equivalents of R1 269 million (2021: R972 million) which comprised cash held by Merafe of R617 million (2021: R483 million) and R652 million (2021: R489 million), being Merafe's share of the cash balance in the Venture. The cash held by the Venture for rehabilitation is not restricted cash but has been set aside to fund future environmental rehabilitation obligations. Merafe's share of this cash is R301 million (2021: R189 million) and is included in its share of the cash in the Venture of R652 million (2021: R489 million) referred to above.

Our rehabilitation obligation is assessed periodically by an independent expert. For the year under review, the liability was assessed to be higher due to higher closure costs. As a result, the ringfenced cash was increased to match the increased liability. The ringfenced cash caters for both the mines and smelters closure costs. The cash is assessed annually against our obligations to determine if any adjustment is warranted.

Trade and other receivables decreased by 44% compared to the previous year primarily as a result of lower sales volumes over the last quarter of the year.

Ferrochrome finished goods volumes of 109kt (2021: 76kt) on hand at year end represent approximately three to four months of sales. The closing inventory value increased to R2 373 million (2021: R1 652 million). The increase in the closing value of inventory was due to low chrome and ferrochrome volume sales due to softer market conditions.

Boshoek mine which is under care and maintenance is in the process of being sold and has been classified as an asset held for sale at reporting date.

The Board has declared a final cash dividend of R325 million (2021: R550 million). This amounts to 13 cents (2021: 22 cents) per share before dividend tax and brings the total dividend for the year to R625 million (2021: R725 million).

Safety

The Venture was fatality free for the year 2022 and remains so for the first two months of 2023. Our total recordable injury frequency rate improved by 14.29% to 2.40 (December 2021: 2.80§).

The safety of our employees is our number one priority and we therefore remain focused on the implementation of SafeWork 2.0 with the aim of continual improvement and the effective implementation of the fatal hazard protocols and safety standards.

Health

COVID-19 continues to be a risk that we need to manage from a health perspective in the workplace and where controls must be implemented to manage the potential spread of the virus. The COVID-19 procedures have now been embedded at our operations as standard operating procedures.

On average a total of 10 023 antigen tests were conducted during 2022, in total 71 506 tests have been conducted on site since we started carrying out tests in January 2021. For the reporting period, 390 members of our workforce tested positive compared to 2 873 positive cases for the full year in 2021. Since the beginning of COVID-19 we have had 4 100 positive cases in total.

We supplied vaccinations at our operations until the end of April 2022. In total, 21 520 vaccines were administered, of which 4 438 were given in 2022.

As previously reported in our interim results, it is with great sadness that we lost two of our colleagues due to COVID-19 in 2022.

1 Refers to a non-IFRS measure
§ There was a restatement of the 2021 statistic from 2.75 to 2.80. The 2021 financial year data related to incident classifications and hours worked was corrected to align with reporting definitions. This impacted on the frequency rates

Environmental, Social and Governance

Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) compliance remains one of our important pillars in terms of how we conduct business. Our Health, Safety, Environmental & Community and Human Rights Standards as introduced in 2021 and rolled out during 2022 enable us to be a responsible producer. We are a member of the International Council on Mining and Metals ("ICMM") and we subscribe to the Mining Principles, comprising ten sustainable development principles and eight position statements that include specific commitments on issues ranging from biodiversity to water management, public reporting on performance and obtaining independent assurance that members meet the ICMM commitments.

The Venture's decarbonisation objectives are aligned with those of Glencore plc. Our portfolio profile provides the flexibility to decarbonise our footprint with a target of achieving a 50% reduction in our total CO2e emissions by 2035. Some of our strategic elements towards achieving our target include managing our operational footprint as well as taking advantage of opportunities to reduce our scope 3 emissions.

The Company has considered the JSE Sustainability Disclosure Guidance issued in June 2022 and will incorporate disclosure enhancements emanating therefrom in our 2022 Integrated Annual Report.

Operational review

Merafe's attributable ferrochrome production increased marginally by 1% from 379kt to 384kt for the year ended 31 December 2022. This was despite the electricity supply challenges experienced particularly in the second half of the year.

Lydenburg smelter, Rustenburg furnace 6 and Waterval mine remain under care and maintenance.

Total unit cost of ferrochrome production rose by 30%. The increase was mainly driven by general inflation, higher market ore prices, reductant prices and electricity tariffs. Reductant costs were impacted by the higher market cost of coke and anthracite. Inadequate local supply of reductants continues to be a challenge and as a result the Venture had to import at higher prices.

Electricity tariffs increased by 9.61% with effect from 1 April 2022. The National Energy Regulator of South Africa has approved a tariff increase of 18.65% with effect from 1 April 2023. The hike will certainly add more cost pressures. Reliability of electricity supply remains a serious concern. The Venture's operations were impacted by the curtailments stage 3 and stage 4 and had to reduce load. The Venture continues to pursue the Negotiated Pricing Agreement with Eskom to mitigate against the unsustainable high energy costs. In addition, the Venture is evaluating proposals for construction of renewable energy facilities.

Massive logistic challenges continue to plague the industry, contributing to increased logistic costs. The increased reliance on road transportation, combined with higher diesel cost has pushed this cost component higher.

Market review

Global ferrochrome supply increased by 6.7%1 year-on-year led by production growth in China. The increase in supply outweighed demand in stainless steel which contracted 3.5%1 year-on-year to 56.7Mt1. Stainless melt rates in China decreased by 1.6%1 to 32.9Mt1 as the zero COVID-19 policy affected production while high energy costs and weak demand stifled output in Europe as production decreased by 10.5%1.

High chrome ore consumption coupled with logistical constraints out of South Africa resulted in a significant drawdown of Chinese port stocks. Chrome ore pricing increased by 44%2 year-on-year.

The average European ferrochrome benchmark price was US cents 1813 per pound in 2022, which represents an increase of 19%3 from the 2021 average price.

1 CRU commodity market analysts
2 Ferroalloynet
3 Fast Market (Metal Bulletin) – Ferrochrome lumpy Cr charge quarterly, basis 52% Cr (and high carbon), delivered Europe, $c/lb Cr

Outlook

Disruption and volatility have long characterised markets and the last two years were no exception. First there was COVID-19 which was followed by the Russia/Ukraine conflict. This led to inflationary concerns and contributed to supply chain challenges which were already prevalent in the aftermath of COVID-19 lockdown relaxations. Energy insecurity and global recession concerns now present risks that businesses and nations across the world have to deal with.

Given this operating environment, 2023 is likely to be a challenging year. There is expectation that global recession will affect commodity prices negatively. On the positive side, the reopening of China after their zero COVID-19 policy suggests that there might be compensating increased economic activity from that region. Forecast growth in stainless steel demand, underpinned by growth in Asia and Europe, is positive for the ferrochrome industry.

We expect the efficiencies achieved in our operations to be sustained. Our production profile will be influenced by several factors including Eskom's inability to meet the country's electricity demand and rolling electricity outages as well as our stock holding levels. Our capital expenditure program will be focused on sustaining capital.

Overall, and once again, we remain cautious in our approach to the future and will continue to focus on efficient operations, cash preservation, cost control and optimal capital allocation. The Eastern Chrome Mines' PGMs plant and green energy initiatives are some of the important projects that will receive management's attention in 2023.

We are committed to creating shared value for our stakeholders.

Abiel Mngomezulu

Independent Non-executive Chairperson
Sandton
17 March 2023

Zanele Matlala

Chief Executive Officer